Clinical-epidemiological characteristics and temporal trend of new cases of grade 2 disability leprosy in the state of Maranhão, Brazil, 2011- 2020.

MAIN RESULTS: Out of 2,147 grade 2 disability leprosy cases, the majority were male, of mixed race/skin color, multibacillary and borderline. The São Luís regional health unit showed a falling trend. IMPLICATIONS FOR SERVICES: The results can guide strategies for the leprosy control program in the state, aiming at new approaches towards early diagnosis, treatment and prevention of disabilities. PERSPECTIVES: Further studies are needed, such as spatial distribution of cases and detection rates of leprosy in children under 15 years of age, in order to gain a better understanding of the epidemiological profile of leprosy in Maranhão. OBJECTIVE: to describe the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of new cases of grade 2 disability leprosy and to analyze its trend in the state of Maranhão, from 2011 to 2020. METHODS: this was a descriptive cross-sectional and ecological time-series study, using data from the Notifiable Health Conditions Information System. A descriptive analysis of the event was carried out according to the sociodemographic and clinical-laboratory characteristics of the cases. The temporal trend of event incidence was analyzed using Prais-Winsten regression. RESULTS: of the 2,147 cases, 71.5% were male, 48.9% had up to 8 years of schooling, 66.5% were of mixed race/color, 95.5% had the multibacillary form, 58.8% were borderline, 32.3% had negative bacilloscopy at diagnosis. There was a stationary trend in the state and a falling trend in the São Luís Health Region (annual percentage change = -64.4%; 95% confidence interval: -73.7;-51.9). CONCLUSION: incidence trend was stable in the state of Maranhão and falling in São Luís.

Leprosy prevalence spatial distribution and trend in a health region in Northeast Brazil, 2008-2017: an ecological study.

MAIN RESULTS: A total of 4,029 leprosy cases were notified. Mean prevalence varied between 2.0 and 11.5 cases/10,000 inhab. Spatial distribution of the cases was heterogeneous and there was a falling prevalence trend over the years studied. IMPLICATIONS FOR SERVICES: These findings point to the need to strengthen active tracing strategies and expand health actions and services targeting leprosy, with the aim of increasing detection and early treatment of cases. PERSPECTIVES: It is important to carry out epidemiological investigations on the spatial distribution and prevalence of leprosy in other health regions in the state, in order to identify other areas with greater vulnerability to leprosy. OBJECTIVE: to analyse the spatial distribution and trend of leprosy in municipalities of a health region in a Northeast Brazilian state. METHODS: this was an ecological time-series study based on compulsory notification of leprosy cases by the municipalities covered by the Imperatriz-MA Regional Health Management Unit, between 2008 and 2017; prevalence and mean prevalence for the period were calculated; spatial analysis of the area was carried out and maps were generated using ArcGis 10.5. Prais-Winsten regression was used for trend analysis. RESULT: 4,029 cases of the disease were identified, and average prevalence ranged from 2.0 to 11.5 cases/10,000 inhabitants-year. The overall trend was downward. Governador Edson Lobão had the highest prevalence, 11.5 cases/10,000 inhabitants, and Lajeado Novo had the lowest prevalence, 2.0 cases/10,000 inhabitants. CONCLUSION: spatial distribution of leprosy cases was heterogeneous in the municipalities studied and prevalence had a falling trend.

Factors associated with multibacillary leprosy in a region of northeastern Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: The analysis of factors associated with multibacillary leprosy is important for the development of strategies to mitigate the disease, which persists as a public health problem in Brazil and the world. The objective of this study was to verify the associations between sociodemographic and clinical-epidemiological variables and multibacillary leprosy in the state of northeastern Brazil. METHODOLOGY: This is a cross-sectional, analytical, and retrospective study, with a quantitative approach, carried out in 16 municipalities in the southwest of Maranhão State, northeastern Brazil. All cases of leprosy reported between January 2008 and December 2017 were considered. Sociodemographic and clinical-epidemiological variables were analyzed using descriptive statistics. The identification of the risk factors associated with multibacillary leprosy was conducted using Poisson regression models. The prevalence ratios and respective 95% confidence intervals were estimated using regression coefficients at a 5% significance level. RESULTS: A total of 3,903 leprosy cases were analyzed. Individuals older than 15 years, males, with less than 8 years of education, with level I, II, or "not evaluated" disability, and with type 1 or 2 or both reactional states were more likely to have multibacillary leprosy. Therefore, these characteristics may be considered risk factors. No protective factors were identified. CONCLUSIONS: The investigation revealed important associations between risk factors and multibacillary leprosy. The findings can be considered during the creation of strategies to control and combat the disease.

Distribuição espacial e tendência da prevalência da hanseníase em uma regional de saúde do Nordeste brasileiro, 2008-2017: um estudo ecológico / Leprosy prevalence spatial distribution and trend in a health region in Northeast Brazil, 2008-2017: an ecological study / Distribución espacial y tendencia en la prevalencia de la lepra en una región sanitaria del Nordeste de Brasil, 2008-2017: un estudio ecológico

Objetivo: analisar a distribuição espacial e a tendência da hanseníase em municípios de uma regional de saúde de um estado no Nordeste brasileiro. Métodos: estudo ecológico e de séries temporais, sobre a notificação compulsória dos municípios integrantes da Unidade Gestora Regional de Saúde de Imperatriz, Maranhão, Brasil, entre 2008 e 2017; foram determinadas as prevalências e a média para o período; realizou-se a análise espacial de área e os mapas foram gerados pelo aplicativo ArcGis 10.5; na análise de tendência, utilizou-se a regressão de Prais-Winsten. Resultado: foram identificados 4.029 casos da doença e as médias de prevalência variaram de 2,0 a 11,5 casos/10 mil habitantes/ano, com tendência descendente; Governador Edson Lobão apresentou a maior prevalência, 11,5 casos/10 mil hab., e Lajeado Novo a menor, 2,0 casos/10 mil hab. Conclusão: a distribuição espacial dos casos de hanseníase foi heterogênea nos municípios estudados e a tendência da prevalência, decrescente.

Objective: to analyse the spatial distribution and trend of leprosy in municipalities of a health region in a Northeast Brazilian state. Methods: this was an ecological time-series study based on compulsory notification of leprosy cases by the municipalities covered by the Imperatriz-MA Regional Health Management Unit, between 2008 and 2017; prevalence and mean prevalence for the period were calculated; spatial analysis of the area was carried out and maps were generated using ArcGis 10.5. Prais-Winsten regression was used for trend analysis. Result: 4,029 cases of the disease were identified, and average prevalence ranged from 2.0 to 11.5 cases/10,000 inhabitants-year. The overall trend was downward. Governador Edson Lobão had the highest prevalence, 11.5 cases/10,000 inhabitants, and Lajeado Novo had the lowest prevalence, 2.0 cases/10,000 inhabitants. Conclusion: spatial distribution of leprosy cases was heterogeneous in the municipalities studied and prevalence had a falling trend.

Objetivo: analisar la distribución espacial y la tendencia de la lepra en una región sanitaria de un estado del Nordeste brasileño. Métodos: estudio ecológico y de serie temporal, con notificación obligatoria de los municipios de la Unidad de Gestión Regional de Salud de Imperatriz-MA, entre 2008-2017. Se determinaron la prevalencia y la media del período y se realizó un análisis del espacio de área, los mapas se generaron en ArcGis 10.5. Para el análisis de tendencia se utilizaron regresiones de Prais-Winsten. Resultado: se identificaron 4.029 casos y las prevalencias promedio oscilaron entre 2,0 y 11,5 casos/10.000 habitantes-año, con tendencia al descenso. Governador Edson Lobão presentó la mayor prevalencia 11,5 casos/10.000 habitantes y Lajeado Novo la menor prevalencia 2,0 casos/10.000 habitantes. Conclusión: la distribución espacial de los casos de lepra fue heterogénea en los municipios y la tendencia de prevalencia decreciente.

Características clínico-epidemiológicas e tendência temporal de casos novos de hanseníase com grau 2 de incapacidade física, no estado do Maranhão, 2011-2020 / Clinical-epidemiological characteristics and temporal trend of new cases of grade 2 disability leprosy in the state of Maranhão, Brazil, 2011- 2020 / Características clínico-epidemiológicas y tendencia temporal de los nuevos casos de lepra grado 2 de discapacidad en el estado de Maranhão, Brasil, 2011-2020

Objetivo: descrever as características clínico-epidemiológicas dos casos novos de hanseníase com grau 2 de incapacidade física e analisar sua tendência no estado do Maranhão, Brasil, 2011-2020. Métodos: estudo transversal descritivo e ecológico de série temporal, com dados do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação; realizou-se análise descritiva do evento segundo características sociodemográficas e clínico-laboratoriais dos casos; a tendência temporal da incidência do evento foi analisada pela regressão de Prais-Winsten. Resultados: dos 2.147 casos notificados, 71,5% foram do sexo masculino, 48,9% possuíam até 8 anos de estudo, 66,5% eram de raça/cor da pele parda, 95,5% da forma multibacilar, 58,8% da forma dimorfa e 32,3% com baciloscopia negativa no diagnóstico; observou-se estacionaridade na tendência no estado, e tendência decrescente na regional de saúde de São Luís (variação anual = -64,4%; intervalo de confiança de 95% -73,7;-51,9). Conclusão: a tendência da incidência foi estável no estado do Maranhão e decrescente em São Luís.

Objective: to describe the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of new cases of grade 2 disability leprosy and to analyze its trend in the state of Maranhão, from 2011 to 2020. Methods: this was a descriptive cross-sectional and ecological time-series study, using data from the Notifiable Health Conditions Information System. A descriptive analysis of the event was carried out according to the sociodemographic and clinical-laboratory characteristics of the cases. The temporal trend of event incidence was analyzed using Prais-Winsten regression. Results: of the 2,147 cases, 71.5% were male, 48.9% had up to 8 years of schooling, 66.5% were of mixed race/color, 95.5% had the multibacillary form, 58.8% were borderline, 32.3% had negative bacilloscopy at diagnosis. There was a stationary trend in the state and a falling trend in the São Luís Health Region (annual percentage change = -64.4%; 95% confidence interval: -73.7;-51.9). Conclusion: incidence trend was stable in the state of Maranhão and falling in São Luís.

Objetivo: describir las características clínicas y epidemiológicas de los nuevos casos de lepra con discapacidad física grado 2 y analizar su tendencia en el estado de Maranhão, de 2011 a 2020. Métodos: estudio transversal descriptivo y ecológico de serie temporal con datos del Sistema de Información de Agravamiento de Notificaciones. Se realizó un análisis descriptivo de características sociodemográficas y clínico-laboratoriales. La tendencia temporal de la incidencia de eventos se analizó mediante la regresión de Prais-Winsten. Resultados: de los 2.147 casos, 71,5% era masculino, 48,9% tenía hasta 8 años de escolaridad, 66,5% era de raza/piel parda, 95,5% de forma multibacilar, 58,8% dimorfa, 32,3% con baciloscopia negativa al diagnóstico. Hubo tendencia estacionaria en el estado y tendencia decreciente en la Región de Salud São Luís (variación anual = -64,4%; intervalo de confianza 95%: -73,7;-51,9). Conclusión: la tendencia de la incidencia se mantuvo estable en el estado de Maranhão y decreciente en São Luís.

Leprosy in the context of the Family Health Strategy in an endemic scenario in Maranhão: prevalence and associated factors. / Hanseníase no contexto da Estratégia Saúde da Família em cenário endêmico do Maranhão: prevalência e fatores associados.

This study aimed to describe the prevalence of leprosy and verify the factors associated with multibacillary clinical types in a Family Health Strategy priority setting to control and monitor the disease in northeastern Brazil. This cross-sectional study used data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System related to leprosy cases notified in Imperatriz, Maranhão, between 2008 and 2017. The prevalence was determined yearly and for the period. Poisson regression models with a significance level of 5% were employed to associate the variables and the multibacillary clinical types. Most of the 2,476 leprosy cases analyzed referred to multibacillary clinical types. The prevalence ranged from 7.8 and 15.6/10,000 inhabitants, with high and very high endemicity levels. The variables male, age groups between 30 and 59 years and ≥60 years, schooling <8 years, level 2 physical disability, types 1 and 2 reactive episodes, and urban residence area showed significant associations (p≤0.05) with multibacillary clinical types. Such findings can serve as a basis for elaborating and implementing leprosy control and surveillance measures, gearing actions to the most vulnerable groups, and becoming more effective.

Este estudo objetivou descrever a prevalência da hanseníase e verificar os fatores associados às formas clínicas multibacilares em cenário da Estratégia Saúde da Família, prioritário para o controle e a vigilância da doença no nordeste brasileiro. Trata-se de estudo transversal, que utilizou dados do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação relativos aos casos de hanseníase notificados em Imperatriz, Maranhão, entre 2008 e 2017. Determinaram-se as prevalências a cada ano e para o período. Para associar as variáveis e as formas clínicas multibacilares, utilizaram-se modelos de regressão de Poisson, com nível de significância de 5%. Dos 2.476 casos de hanseníase analisados, a maioria referiu-se às formas clínicas multibacilares. A prevalência variou entre 15,6 e 7,8/10 mil habitantes, encontrando-se níveis alto e muito alto de endemicidade. As variáveis sexo masculino, faixas etárias entre 30 e 59 anos e ≥60 anos, escolaridade <8 anos, grau 2 de incapacidade física, episódio reacional tipos 1 e 2 e zona de residência urbana apresentaram associações significativas (p≤0,05) com as formas clínicas multibacilares. Tais achados podem servir de base para elaboração e implementação de medidas de controle e vigilância da hanseníase, direcionando as ações para os grupos mais vulneráveis e tornando-se mais efetivas.

Spatial-temporal analysis of leprosy in a priority Brazilian northeast municipality for disease control.

OBJECTIVES: to analyze the spatial-temporal distribution of leprosy in a priority municipality for leprosy control. METHODS: ecological study, conducted in a city in the Northeast of Brazil, whose analysis units were census sectors. The study used compulsory notification data for cases registered between 2008 and 2017. TerraView software and the Batch Geocode tool was used for geocoding. The detection of spatial-temporal agglomerations of high relative risks was done by scanning statistics. RESULTS: the spatial-temporal distribution of cases was heterogeneous, creating four agglomerations of high relative risks in the urban area of the municipality between the years 2008 and 2012; and annual prevalence rates classified from high to hyperendemic. CONCLUSIONS: areas of higher risk and concentration of the disease in space-time were linked to the characteristics of high population density and social vulnerability of these spaces, raising the prioritization of health professionals' actions, systems, and services for control, and monitoring the disease.

Hanseníase no contexto da estratégia saúde da família em cenário endêmico do maranhão: prevalência e fatores associados / Leprosy in the context of the family health strategy in an endemic scenario in maranhão: prevalence and associated factors

Resumo Este estudo objetivou descrever a prevalência da hanseníase e verificar os fatores associados às formas clínicas multibacilares em cenário da Estratégia Saúde da Família, prioritário para o controle e a vigilância da doença no nordeste brasileiro. Trata-se de estudo transversal, que utilizou dados do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação relativos aos casos de hanseníase notificados em Imperatriz, Maranhão, entre 2008 e 2017. Determinaram-se as prevalências a cada ano e para o período. Para associar as variáveis e as formas clínicas multibacilares, utilizaram-se modelos de regressão de Poisson, com nível de significância de 5%. Dos 2.476 casos de hanseníase analisados, a maioria referiu-se às formas clínicas multibacilares. A prevalência variou entre 15,6 e 7,8/10 mil habitantes, encontrando-se níveis alto e muito alto de endemicidade. As variáveis sexo masculino, faixas etárias entre 30 e 59 anos e ≥60 anos, escolaridade <8 anos, grau 2 de incapacidade física, episódio reacional tipos 1 e 2 e zona de residência urbana apresentaram associações significativas (p≤0,05) com as formas clínicas multibacilares. Tais achados podem servir de base para elaboração e implementação de medidas de controle e vigilância da hanseníase, direcionando as ações para os grupos mais vulneráveis e tornando-se mais efetivas.

Abstract This study aimed to describe the prevalence of leprosy and verify the factors associated with multibacillary clinical types in a Family Health Strategy priority setting to control and monitor the disease in northeastern Brazil. This cross-sectional study used data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System related to leprosy cases notified in Imperatriz, Maranhão, between 2008 and 2017. The prevalence was determined yearly and for the period. Poisson regression models with a significance level of 5% were employed to associate the variables and the multibacillary clinical types. Most of the 2,476 leprosy cases analyzed referred to multibacillary clinical types. The prevalence ranged from 7.8 and 15.6/10,000 inhabitants, with high and very high endemicity levels. The variables male, age groups between 30 and 59 years and ≥60 years, schooling <8 years, level 2 physical disability, types 1 and 2 reactive episodes, and urban residence area showed significant associations (p≤0.05) with multibacillary clinical types. Such findings can serve as a basis for elaborating and implementing leprosy control and surveillance measures, gearing actions to the most vulnerable groups, and becoming more effective.

Social inequalities and their association with the leprosy burden in a Brazilian city of low endemicity: An ecological study.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the association between social inequalities and the leprosy burden in a low endemicity scenario in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: This ecological study was carried out in the city of Ribeirão Preto, state of São Paulo, Brazil, considering leprosy cases notified from 2006 to 2016. Regarding social inequalities, dimensions related to high household density, literacy, home occupation conditions, health conditions, household income, ethnicity and age were considered. The generalised additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) was used to verify the association between the social inequalities and leprosy burden. RESULTS: The increase in men and women with no education and people with an income of 1 to 2 minimum wages was associated with a relative increase in the number of leprosy cases (7.37%, 7.10% and 2.44%, respectively). Regarding the ethnicity variables, the increase in the proportion of men (black) and women (mixed race) with no schooling was associated with a relative increase in the number of cases of the disease (10.77% and 4.02%, respectively). Finally, for people of mixed race or ethnicity, the increase in the proportion of households with 1/2 to 1 minimum wage was related to a relative decrease in the total number of cases (-4.90%). CONCLUSION: The results show that the determinants associated with the increase in leprosy cases are similar to those in Brazilian hyperendemic regions, and that even in cities with low endemicity, social inequality is one of the main determinants of the disease.

Spatial-temporal analysis of leprosy in a priority Brazilian northeast municipality for disease control / Análisis espacio-temporal de la lepra en municipio del noreste brasileño prioritario para el control de la enfermedad / Análise espaço-temporal da hanseníase em município do Nordeste brasileiro prioritário para o controle da doença

ABSTRACT Objectives: to analyze the spatial-temporal distribution of leprosy in a priority municipality for leprosy control. Methods: ecological study, conducted in a city in the Northeast of Brazil, whose analysis units were census sectors. The study used compulsory notification data for cases registered between 2008 and 2017. TerraView software and the Batch Geocode tool was used for geocoding. The detection of spatial-temporal agglomerations of high relative risks was done by scanning statistics. Results: the spatial-temporal distribution of cases was heterogeneous, creating four agglomerations of high relative risks in the urban area of the municipality between the years 2008 and 2012; and annual prevalence rates classified from high to hyperendemic. Conclusions: areas of higher risk and concentration of the disease in space-time were linked to the characteristics of high population density and social vulnerability of these spaces, raising the prioritization of health professionals' actions, systems, and services for control, and monitoring the disease.

RESUMEN Objetivos: analizar distribución espacio-temporal de lepra en municipio prioritario para control de la enfermedad. Métodos: estudio ecológico, realizado en municipio brasileño, cuyas unidades de análisis fueron sectores censuales. Utilizaron datos de notificación obligatoria relativos a casos registrados entre 2008 y 2017. Para geocodificación, utilizaron el software TerraView y herramienta Batch Geocode. Detección de aglomerados espacio-temporales de altos riesgos relativos realizada por estadística de barredura. Resultados: distribución espacio-temporal de los casos fue heterogénea, con formación de cuatro aglomerados de altos riesgos relativos en la zona urbana del municipio entre 2008 y 2012; y tasas de prevalencia año clasificadas de altas a hiperendémicas. Conclusiones: áreas de mayor riesgo y concentración de la enfermedad en el espacio-tiempo estuvieron relacionadas a las características de alta densidad demográfica y de vulnerabilidad social de esos espacios, suscitando la priorización de acciones de los profesionales, sistemas y servicios de salud para control y vigilancia de la enfermedad.

RESUMO Objetivos: analisar a distribuição espaço-temporal da hanseníase em município prioritário para controle da doença. Métodos: estudo ecológico, realizado em município do Nordeste brasileiro, cujas unidades de análise foram setores censitários. Utilizaram-se dados de notificação compulsória relativos aos casos registrados entre 2008 e 2017. Para geocodificação, utilizaram-se o software TerraView e a ferramenta Batch Geocode. A detecção de aglomerados espaço-temporais de altos riscos relativos foi feita por estatística de varredura. Resultados: a distribuição espaço-temporal dos casos foi heterogênea, com formação de quatro aglomerados de altos riscos relativos na zona urbana do município entre os anos de 2008 e 2012; e taxas de prevalência-ano classificadas de altas a hiperendêmicas. Conclusões: áreas de maior risco e concentração da doença no espaço-tempo estiveram atreladas às características de alta densidade demográfica e de vulnerabilidade social desses espaços, suscitando a priorização de ações dos profissionais, sistemas e serviços de saúde para controle e vigilância da doença.

Spatial-temporal analysis of leprosy in a priority Brazilian northeast municipality for disease control / Análisis espacio-temporal de la lepra en municipio del noreste brasileño prioritario para el control de la enfermedad / Análise espaço-temporal da hanseníase em município do Nordeste brasileiro prioritário para o controle da doença

ABSTRACT Objectives: to analyze the spatial-temporal distribution of leprosy in a priority municipality for leprosy control. Methods: ecological study, conducted in a city in the Northeast of Brazil, whose analysis units were census sectors. The study used compulsory notification data for cases registered between 2008 and 2017. TerraView software and the Batch Geocode tool was used for geocoding. The detection of spatial-temporal agglomerations of high relative risks was done by scanning statistics. Results: the spatial-temporal distribution of cases was heterogeneous, creating four agglomerations of high relative risks in the urban area of the municipality between the years 2008 and 2012; and annual prevalence rates classified from high to hyperendemic. Conclusions: areas of higher risk and concentration of the disease in space-time were linked to the characteristics of high population density and social vulnerability of these spaces, raising the prioritization of health professionals' actions, systems, and services for control, and monitoring the disease.

RESUMEN Objetivos: analizar distribución espacio-temporal de lepra en municipio prioritario para control de la enfermedad. Métodos: estudio ecológico, realizado en municipio brasileño, cuyas unidades de análisis fueron sectores censuales. Utilizaron datos de notificación obligatoria relativos a casos registrados entre 2008 y 2017. Para geocodificación, utilizaron el software TerraView y herramienta Batch Geocode. Detección de aglomerados espacio-temporales de altos riesgos relativos realizada por estadística de barredura. Resultados: distribución espacio-temporal de los casos fue heterogénea, con formación de cuatro aglomerados de altos riesgos relativos en la zona urbana del municipio entre 2008 y 2012; y tasas de prevalencia año clasificadas de altas a hiperendémicas. Conclusiones: áreas de mayor riesgo y concentración de la enfermedad en el espacio-tiempo estuvieron relacionadas a las características de alta densidad demográfica y de vulnerabilidad social de esos espacios, suscitando la priorización de acciones de los profesionales, sistemas y servicios de salud para control y vigilancia de la enfermedad.

RESUMO Objetivos: analisar a distribuição espaço-temporal da hanseníase em município prioritário para controle da doença. Métodos: estudo ecológico, realizado em município do Nordeste brasileiro, cujas unidades de análise foram setores censitários. Utilizaram-se dados de notificação compulsória relativos aos casos registrados entre 2008 e 2017. Para geocodificação, utilizaram-se o software TerraView e a ferramenta Batch Geocode. A detecção de aglomerados espaço-temporais de altos riscos relativos foi feita por estatística de varredura. Resultados: a distribuição espaço-temporal dos casos foi heterogênea, com formação de quatro aglomerados de altos riscos relativos na zona urbana do município entre os anos de 2008 e 2012; e taxas de prevalência-ano classificadas de altas a hiperendêmicas. Conclusões: áreas de maior risco e concentração da doença no espaço-tempo estiveram atreladas às características de alta densidade demográfica e de vulnerabilidade social desses espaços, suscitando a priorização de ações dos profissionais, sistemas e serviços de saúde para controle e vigilância da doença.

Trends and forecasts of leprosy for a hyperendemic city from Brazil's northeast: Evidence from an eleven-year time-series analysis.

This study's objective was to estimate the temporal trends of leprosy according to sex and age groups, as well as to estimate and predict the progression of the disease in a hyperendemic city located in the northeast of Brazil. This ecological time-series study was conducted in Imperatriz, Maranhão, Brazil. Leprosy cases diagnosed between 2006 and 2016 were included. Detection rates stratified by sex and age groups were estimated. The study of temporal trends was accomplished using the Seasonal-Trend Decomposition method and temporal modeling of detection rates using linear seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model according to Box and Jenkins method. Trend forecasts were performed for the 2017-2020 period. A total of 3,212 cases of leprosy were identified, the average incidence among men aged between 30 and 59 years old was 201.55/100,000 inhabitants and among women in the same age group was 135.28/100,000 inhabitants. Detection rates in total and by sex presented a downward trend, though rates stratified according to sex and age presented a growing trend among men aged less than 15 years old and among women aged 60 years old or over. The final models selected in the time-series analysis show the forecasts of total detection rates and rates for men and women presented a downward trend for the 2017-2020 period. Even though the forecasts show a downward trend in Imperatriz, the city is unlikely to meet a significant decrease of the disease burden by 2020.

Factors Associated with Multibacillary Leprosy in a Priority Region for Disease Control in Northeastern Brazil: A Retrospective Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Leprosy is an infectious disease that can lead to physical disabilities and stigmatization. It remains an important public health problem, especially in Brazil. OBJECTIVE: To analyse sociodemographic and clinical factors associated with multibacillary leprosy in a hyperendemic region of the disease in northeastern Brazil. METHOD: This is a retrospective observational study with secondary data acquired from 2012 to 2015, from a group of leprosy cases reported in a reference outpatient clinic for the treatment and followup of leprosy in the city of Imperatriz, Maranhao, in northeastern Brazil. RESULTS: From 905 new cases of leprosy studied, 656 (72.5%) were classified as multibacillary leprosy and 249 (27.5%) as paucibacillary leprosy. We observed that men were more likely to present 5 to 15 skin lesions (OR: 1.32; 95% CI: 1.18-1.49; p <0.0001) and >15 skin lesions (OR: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.09 -1.45; p = 0.005) and a lower chance of having <5 skin lesions (OR: 0.67; 95% CI: 0.59-0.76; p <0.0001). Women were more likely to have no affected nerves compared to men (OR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.20-1.77; p <0.0001). The age range of 16 to 60 years showed a greater chance of having <5 skin lesions (OR: 1.01; 95% CI: 1.007-1.20; p = 0.03) and a lower chance of having 5 to 15 skin lesions (OR: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.03-1.23; p= 0.008) and a lower chance of being a grade I disability ( CI= 0.73-0.94; p=0.83) and II (OR: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.77-0.98; p=000.1). CONCLUSION: Cases of multibacillary leprosy were associated with male gender, low educational level, and clinical variables such as number of skin lesions and grade I or II disability.

Incidência de hanseníase em menores de 15 anos acompanhados no Município de Imperatriz, Maranhão, entre 2004 e 2010 / Incidence of leprosy in patients aged 15 or younger cared in the Municipality of Imperatriz, Maranhão, between 2004 and 2010

Objetivou-se estimar a incidência global e em casos índices de hanseníase e traçar o perfil sócio demográfico em menores de 15 anos no município de Imperatriz, Maranhão. Realizou-se um estudo longitudinal retrospectivo dos casos de hanseníase no município, utilizando-se dados obtidos das notificações do agravo junto ao SINAN NET. A população do estudo compreendeu 284 casos novos notificados no período entre 2004 e 2010. A análise dos dados utilizou os testes Qui-quadrado de Pearson ou o Exato de Fischer. Evidenciou-se elevados coeficientes de detecção no ano de 2005 (83,38/ 100.000 hab.), incapacidade física no diagnóstico em 2004 (39,62%.) e de contatos examinados (24,44%). Houve predomínio de casos no sexo masculino (51,06%), cor parda (55,65%), faixa etária de 10­14 anos (60,22%) e com escolaridade média de 6­11 anos (59,8%). A maioria das formas clínicas notificadas foi do tipo indeterminada (40,13 %), tendo como predominante o grau de incapacidade física II (21,1 %). Não foram estatisticamente significantes as diferenças proporcionais entre as formas clínicas (p-valor=0,056); ao passo que a escolaridade apresentou associação significativa (p<0,0001) com a ocorrência da doença entre menores de 15 anos de idade. Conclui-se que a hanseníase continua uma doença de fácil disseminação, considerando a frequência de casos novos.

The purpose of this study was to estimate the global incidence and cases indexes of leprosy and to design the socio-demographic profile in children under 15 years of age in the municipality of Imperatriz, in the state of Maranhão, Brazil. A longitudinal retrospective study of leprosy cases in the municipality was performed, using information generated by the disease reports in SINAN NET. Data collection included 284 patients reported from 2004 to 2010, classified as new cases. Data analysis used Pearson's Chi-square test or Fisher's exact test. There were high detection coefficients in 2005 (83.38/100.000 inhabitants), physical incapacity in the diagnosis in 2004 (39.62%) and in examined contacts (24.44%). There was a predominance of male (51.06%), brown color (55.65%), aged between 10-14 years (60.22%), and average schooling of 6-11 years (59.8%). Most of the clinical forms reported were of the indeterminate type (40.13%), with predominance of physical incapacity degree II (21.1%). The proportional differences between the clinical forms (p-value = 0.056) were not statistically significant, while schooling presented a significant association (p <0.0001) with the occurrence of the disease among children under 15 years of age. It can be concluded that leprosy remains a disease with easy spread when considering the rate of new cases.